Haver’s data services are provided through the DLX platform; delivering tools for data management, visualization, modeling and publishing. DLX is designed to increase productivity and integrates with Excel, PowerPoint, and major statistical software packages; MatLab, R, Python, SAS, E-views and Stata. DLX component application DLXVG3 offers precision graphics, publishing, analytic tools, and easy navigation for all Haver databases.

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Chart and compare multiple data series with accompanying data table of values

Advanced functions (growth rates, moving averages, aggregation, seasonal adjustment)

Analytical tools (cycle charts, scatterplots, trend lines, and recession shading)

Complete graph customization (axis scaling, sizing, formatting, styles)

Excel and PowerPoint direct export and complete integration (dynamic spreadsheets and presentations update on a click)

DLXVG3

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DLX Add-ins for all versions of Excel provide instant data updates of entire workbooks

Use DLXVG3 to locate data series codes from within any file, easily creating new spreadsheets for analysis

Edit date ranges, archive data, apply functions

Excel Spreadsheet Add-ins

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Haver offers timely, accurate, and professionally supported data via an update service, meeting the strictest demands of the institutional research community

AutoUpdate provides fast and reliable data updates within seconds of source releases

Timer service runs continuously on an hourly basis when DLX is running

Manual updates offer clients the independence to update data retrievals on any desired schedule

All database updates retrieve only the data series that have changed and send only the data points that have been updated; including revisions

Timely Updates

DLX software tools to convert data into many different formats needed for diverse analytical frameworks

Haver supports a DLX API permitting clients to leverage and build processes with DLX data

Database Compatibility

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Data Link Express

Platform Independent site delivering DLX Databases across any workstation or device.

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HaverView

[Matlab](http://matlab.com) by The MathWorks lets you access, visualize, and analyze historic time-series data to identify patterns or uncover complex relationships. From within a single environment you can:

- Access data from multiple sources including files, spreadsheets, databases, data providers, and the Web
- Store data in financial time-series objects to simplify data management, data transformation, missing-data handling, and date-math calculations
- Perform technical analysis with moving averages, oscillators, stochastics, and indices
- Create custom analysis routines and visualizations or animations to capture, present, and share your analysis processes and discoveries
- Customize your analysis environment with advanced functionality from signal processing, statistics, or econometrics

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MATLAB

[Stata Data Analysis and Statistical Software](https://www.stata.com) by StataCorp LP is an integrated statistical package designed for researchers of all disciplines. It provides the ability to do data analysis, data management and graphics and has features such as multiple imputation, factor variables, GMM, competing-risks regression, state-space modeling, predictive margins, and more.

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Stata

[SAS](https://www.sas.com) provides an integrated environment for predictive and descriptive modeling, data mining, text analytics, forecasting, optimization, simulation, experimental design and more. From predictive analytics to model deployment and process optimization, SAS provides a range of techniques and processes for the collection, classification, analysis and interpretation of data to reveal patterns, anomalies, key variables and relationships, leading ultimately to new insights and better answers faster.

[SASEHAVR](http://support.sas.com/documentation/cdl/en/etsug/67525/HTML/default/viewer.htm#etsug_sasehavr_gettingstarted01.htm) is a seamless interface between Haver and SAS data processing that enables SAS users to read economic and financial time series data that reside in a Haver Analytics DLX (Data Link Express) database. [SASEHAVR](http://support.sas.com/documentation/cdl/en/etsug/67525/HTML/default/viewer.htm#etsug_sasehavr_gettingstarted01.htm) requires both SAS/ETS and Base SAS Software.

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[RATS (Regression Analysis of Time Series) Econometric Software](https://estima.com) by Estima is a leading econometrics and time-series analysis software package. It provides ability to do linear and non-linear least squares, forecasting, SUR and ARIMA models and in addition, supports advanced techniques such as GMM, ARCH and GARCH models, state space models, and more.

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RATS

Session 1: Bootcamp Part 1

Visualization with GGPlot2 and data analysis

Session 2: Bootcamp Part 2

Session 3: Univariate Models Part 1

Session 4: Univariate Models Part 2

Session 5: Vector Autoregressions

Session 6: Cointegration and error-correction models

A popular open source option for statistical computing and graphics that is available on many UNIX platforms, Windows and MacOS

Estimating, evaluating, and forecasting ARIMA models

Understanding the concept of non-stationarity and testing for unit roots

Estimating autoregressions, granger causality tests, and impulse response functions

Understanding the concept of cointegration and testing using the Enger-Granger test

Estimating and forecasting with vector error correction models

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Teaches econometrics and forecasting at the University of Colorado Denver. He has over 15 years of econometric experience in both the private and public sector.

Daniel L. Jerrett, Ph.D.

Abdel M. Zellou, Ph.D.

Bootcamp and Econometric Tools 1 & 2

Econometrics Training: Applied Time Series in R

Session 5: Multivariate Models Part 1

Session 6: Multivariate Models Part 2

Haver partners with SmartMacro Labs to offer a two week immersive online course introducing participants to the power of the Python programming language. This applied hands-on training develops statistical economics skills with a concentration on economics and finance.

Gain proficiency in building modern time-series models in Python through real-world applications. Designed for professionals in both the public and private sector, the course does not require prior experience, assuming only that participants have a basic understanding of regression and statistical concepts.

Proficiency working in Jupyter notebooks and the Python environment

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Remote Training: Applied Time Series in Python

Widespread downgrading of 2025 GDP outlook

Tom Moeller

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New single-family home sales increased 7.4% (6.0% y/y) to 724,000 (SAAR) during March after increasing 3.1% in February to 674,000, revised from 676,000, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected sales of 686,000. The sales rise in March occurred as the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage fell to an average 6.65% last month from 6.84% in February, according to Freddie Mac. It compares to a low of 6.18% averaged in September.

By region, home sales varied across the country last month. New home sales in the Northeast declined 22.2% (-33.3% y/y) to 28,000 in March, after rising 33.3% in February. Sales in the Midwest rose 3.0% (-15.9% y/y) to 69,000, after rising 8.1% in February. In the South, new home sales increased 13.6% (22.3% y/y) to 483,000, following a 7.6% February rise. New home sales in the West declined 1.4% (-12.2% y/y) to 144,000, after falling 14.1% in February.

The median sales price of a new home fell 1.9% (-7.5% y/y) to $403,600 in March after falling 4.6% to $411,500 in February. The average sales price of a new home improved 1.0% (-4.7% y/y) to $497,700 in March, following a 3.6% February decline. The average price was 8.0% below a high of $541,200 in July 2022. These sales price data are not seasonally adjusted.

The number of unsold new homes on the market rose 0.6% (7.9% y/y) to 503,000 in March, after a 0.8% February increase. The seasonally adjusted months' supply of new homes for sale fell to 8.3 months in March after falling to 8.9 months in February. The latest reading remained above a low of 6.9 months in May 2023.	

The median number of months a new home stayed on the market increased to 3.1 months in March, up from a June 2024 low of 2.1 months. It was the highest level since April 2022. The latest number stood well above its record low of 1.5 months in both September and October of 2022, but remained below a high of 5.1 months in March 2021. These figures date back to January 1975.

New home sales are recorded when the sales contract is signed. New home sales activity and prices are available in Haver's **USECON** database. The consensus expectation figure from Action Economics is available in the **AS1REPNA** database.

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- Sales rise to highest level in six months.
- Changes in sales are mixed across the country.
- Median sales price falls to four-month low.

U.S. New Home Sales Improve in March; Prices Weaken

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Mortgage applications declined 12.7% (+18.7% y/y) in the week ended April 18 after dropping 8.5% in the week ended April 11, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey. Applications to refinance an existing mortgage plunged 20.0% (+42.5% y/y) in the week ended April 18, after falling 12.4% one week earlier. Loan applications to purchase a home declined 6.6% (+6.4% y/y) in the latest week, after falling 4.9% in the prior week.

The effective interest rate on a 30-year fixed rate loan rose to 7.09% in the week ended April 18 from 6.99% in the week ended April 11 and 6.79% one week prior. The effective rate on a 15-year fixed rate loan rose to 6.34% in the week of April 18 from 6.27% one week earlier. The rate on a 30-year jumbo loan jumped to 7.03% last week from 6.93% in the prior week, while the rate on a 5-year ARM eased to 6.19% in the week ended April 18 after rising to 6.31% in the week ended April 11.

The share of applications to refinance an existing mortgage declined to a 10-month low of 37.3% in the week ended April 18 from 41.3% in the prior week. The share of loans with an adjustable rate fell to 7.5% in the latest week, following a rise to 9.6% in the prior week.

The average size of a mortgage loan dropped to $386,800 (+1.3% y/y) in the week ended April 18, after falling to $415,100 in the prior week. The average size of a loan to purchase a home declined to $439,900 (+0.5% y/y) from $445,300 in the week prior. The average size of a loan to refinance an outstanding mortgage dropped to $297,700 (+16.4% y/y) in the week ended April 18 from $372,300 in the week ended April 11.

The Mortgage Bankers Association Survey covers 75% of all U.S. retail residential mortgage applications and has been conducted weekly since 1990. Respondents include mortgage bankers, commercial banks and thrifts. The base period and value for all indexes is March 16, 1990=100. The figures for weekly mortgage applications and interest rates are available in Haver’s **SURVEYS** database.

- Refinancing loans fall sharply and purchase loan applications decline as well.
- Effective interest rate increases to two-month high.
- Average loan size falls sharply.

Mortgage Applications Continue to Fall as Interest Rates Rise in Latest Week

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Retail gasoline prices for all grades declined to an average $3.27 per gallon (-13.8% y/y) in the week ended April 21 after falling to $3.30 in the prior week. Prices were $3.37 per gallon to begin the month but remained above their low of $3.13 in the week of December 9. An earlier high was $3.79 in the week ending April 22, 2024. Its all-time high of $5.11 occurred in the week ending June 13, 2022. The retail price for on-highway diesel fuel fell to $3.53 per gallon (-11.5% y/y) in the week of April 21 from $3.58 in the prior week. The latest diesel price stood well below a high of $4.63 in the week ending September 18, 2023 and a peak of $5.81 in the week ending June 20, 2022.

The price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil rose to $62.50 per barrel (-25.9% y/y) in the week ended April 18, after declining to $60.84 per barrel in the prior week. Prices remained below a high of $91.45 in the week of September 29, 2023. The cost of crude oil peaked at $120.46 in the week of June 10, 2022. Yesterday, the price was $63.08 per barrel. The price of European Brent crude oil rose to $67.76 per barrel (-24.4% y/y) in the week of April 18 from $66.10 in the previous week. Prices remained well below a recent high of $95.61 in the week of September 29, 2023 and compared to a peak of $127.40 in the week of June 10, 2022.

Natural gas prices declined last week to an average $3.26 per mmbtu (+123.3% y/y) in the week ended April 18, after falling to $3.68/mmbtu in the prior week. Prices remained well above a low of $1.40/mmbtu in the week of March 15, 2024 but below their peak of $9.56 in the week of August 26, 2022. Yesterday’s price was $3.16/mmbtu.

Gasoline demand fell 3.4% y/y in the four weeks ending April 11 following a 2.8% y/y decline in the prior four weeks. Demand for all petroleum products weakened 1.7% y/y in the four weeks ending April 11 after a 1.9% y/y decline in the previous four-week period. Crude oil input to refineries fell 1.6% y/y in the four weeks ending April 11 after a 1.3% y/y decline in the prior four weeks.

Gasoline inventories rose 2.9% y/y in the week ending April 11 after a 3.3% y/y rise in the week ending April 4. Residual fuel oil inventories fell 14.0% y/y in the week of April 11, after a 15.0% y/y fall in the prior week. Crude oil inventories rose 1.8% y/y in the week of April 11 after a 2.1% y/y rise in the previous week.

Measured in days’ supply, gasoline inventories held steady w/w at 27.5 days in the week of April 11. The recent low was 22.9 days in the week of November 8. The supply of crude oil also was unchanged w/w at 28.3 days in the week of April 11, up from 24.6 days in the week of January 10 but remained below a high of 31.9 days in the week of March 3, 2023.

These data are reported by the Energy Information Administration of the U.S. Department of Energy. The price and supply/demand data can be found in Haver’s **WEEKLY** & **USENERGY** database.

- Gasoline prices fall sharply again.
- Crude oil prices edge higher.
- Natural gas costs decline further.

U.S. Energy Prices Are Mixed in Latest Week

Robert Brusca

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Danish confidence slipped to -17 in April from -15.5 in March, continuing a slide that extends back to late-2023. The weakness accelerated in late-2024 especially with the conclusion of the U.S. elections.

On data back to late 1995, the consumer confidence indicator for Denmark ranks in its lower 3.7 percentile. Confidence has been higher than this most of the time over this period.

The financial situation over the past 12 months ranked at a weak 7.3 percentile standing, but for the next 12 months an even weaker 1.4 percentile reading is in place. The existence of U.S. tariffs and pushback for Europe to carry more of its own defense burden seem to be adversely impacting Danish sentiment. There may also be some anxiety stemming from President Trump’s stated desire to have Greenland, a semi-autonomous Danish territory, become part of the United States.

The general economy has a confidence ranking at its 13.8 percentile over the last 12 months, but that drops to an all-time low ranking of zero for the next 12 months. All these respondents backed down in April compared to their March readings. The ‘expected’ financial conditions response fell by the most.

In sharp contrast, consumer prices for the last 12 months carried a 92.7 percentile standing; for the next 12 months, that pushes back up to the 98.6 percentile. Meanwhile, unemployment concerns, while ticking lower, have a standing at their 84.6 percentile higher since 1995 less than 16% of the time.

The environmental readings show the favorability of the time to purchase or save for the next or last 12 months (four metrics) all generate readings below their respective median (below a standing of 50%. The time to purchase readings are the weakest in this group.

However, the general financial situation for households currently holds above its historic standing at a reading with a 54.5 percentile standing. But that reading eroded last month.

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On balance, Denmark is going through difficult times with consumer confidence shaken across the board on all responses. All the standings of the various responses are generally poor. Still, the current generalized financial situation for households is judged as a positive despite further erosion on the month. Danish respondents may have a great deal of individual concerns, but when it comes to the ‘here and now’ they seem to acknowledge that conditions are much better than they expect them to become over the next 12 months judging from their survey responses.

Denmark

Danish Confidence Drops to 2-Year Low; Inflation Concerns Remain Elevated

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The Industrial Materials Price Index from the Foundation for International Business and Economic Research (FIBER) weakened 4.2% (-5.1% y/y) during the four weeks ended April 18, 2025. The decline has picked up steam since March.

Prices in the Metals group declined 9.1% (-6.9% y/y) over the most recent four weeks. Price weakness was broad-based, led by a 13.1% (-7.5% y/y) decline in the cost of aluminum. Tin prices followed with a 12.3% four-week decline (-6.1% y/y) while zinc prices were off 11.5% (-7.0% y/y) in four weeks. The price of lead declined 8.4% (-11.5% y/y) over the last four weeks. Copper scrap costs declined 7.1% (-3.3% y/y) while the price of steel scrap weakened 3.6% (-6.7% y/y) in four weeks.

Miscellaneous group prices fell 3.7% (+1.0% y/y) during the last four weeks. Framing lumber costs declined 13.2% (+8.8% y/y) while natural rubber costs weakened 11.4% (-9.2% y/y) in four weeks. The price of tallow (used in the soap industry) offset these declines with a 5.9% (24.8% y/y) four-week rise.

Prices in the Crude Oil & Benzene group declined 3.6% (-19.3% y/y) in four weeks. The cost of West Texas Intermediate crude oil slumped 7.5% to $62.32 per barrel and stood 26.1% lower y/y. The cost of the petrol-chemical benzene, used for making plastics & synthetic fibers, weakened 3.5% (-40.6% y/y) in the last four weeks. Excluding crude oil, the industrial commodity price index fell 4.0% (-3.7% y/y) during the last four weeks.

Textile group prices edged 0.3% higher (-1.3% y/y) during the last four weeks. Burlap costs rose 5.9% (16.1% y/y) but the cost of cotton fell 1.3% (-16.2% y/y) in the latest four weeks.

The Foundation for International Business and Economic Research (FIBER) develops economic measurement techniques as applied to business cycles and inflation in the U.S. and other market economies. The commodity price data can be found in Haver's **DAILY**, **WEEKLY**, **USECON** and **CMDTY** databases.

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- Metals prices weaken broadly.
- Lumber & rubber prices fall.
- Crude oil prices remain soft.

FIBER: Industrial Commodity Prices Decline Sharply in Latest Four Weeks

Andrew Cates

**The Blue Chip Growth consensus**
Our first chart this week highlights the widespread downward revisions GDP growth forecasts for 2025 across major economies seen in the latest Blue Chip Economic Indicators survey that have been made in recent months. The most significant downward adjustment has been seen in the United States. But export-reliant economies such as South Korea, Canada, and Germany have also seen sharp downgrades, possibly reflecting their exposure to US demand and cross-border industrial linkages. These adjustments underscore growing concerns that escalating protectionism may weigh heavily on global growth prospects.

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**The Blue Chip Inflation Consensus** 
Our second chart highlights a concomitant marked upward revision to CPI inflation forecasts for 2025 for several major economies—most notably for the US and Japan. Together with the first chart above, this illustrates how US tariff policies could not only be dampening global growth but could also be amplifying inflationary pressures—raising the spectre of stagflation and complicating the task for central banks navigating an increasingly fractured economic landscape.

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**Global financial conditions** 
Our next chart shows the ECB Composite Indicators of Stress and specifically an unweighted average for the US, UK, Euro Area, and China. These show a sharp spike in recent weeks reflecting rising investor anxiety about escalating trade tensions. Their rapid uptick is a warning sign of potential spillovers from rising policy and economic uncertainty into credit markets, investor sentiment, and broader financial stability.

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**US business sentiment** 
This week’s US Empire State Manufacturing Survey additionally paints a more concerning picture of the near-term economic outlook. The diffusion index for general business conditions over the next six months ahead has plunged into negative territory—its lowest reading since the early pandemic period. In the meantime, expectations for prices paid have surged, suggesting that firms anticipate significant cost pressures in the months ahead. This divergence points squarely to stagflation risks: a scenario of slowing or contracting economic activity coupled with rising input prices. The recent spike in price expectations likely reflects the anticipated impact of newly enacted US tariffs, which are raising costs for imported components and materials.

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**Supply chain bottlenecks**
Our next chart, showing the Harper Petersen Charter Rate Index, suggests that global shipping costs have started to climb again. This follows a prolonged post-pandemic decline and suggests fresh disruptions or capacity constraints in global freight markets—likely linked to the latest wave of US tariffs and retaliatory trade actions that are altering shipping patterns and congesting key trade routes. Notably, the past strong correlation between HARPEX and goods CPI inflation in advanced economies highlights the potential inflationary pass-through from higher transport costs to consumer prices. Although goods inflation has moderated from its pandemic-era highs, the recent rebound in shipping rates could reignite upward pressure, especially if firms are forced to pass on elevated logistics and import costs.

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**China’s economy** 
Our final chart this week turns to China’s real estate sector, where recent hopes that the market may have finally found a bottom appear to be fading. While the price index for existing residential buildings has shown tentative signs of stabilization, the continued and pronounced contraction in real estate investment—still running at double-digit negative year-on-year rates—points to persistent fragility. Confidence among developers and financial institutions remains deeply impaired, and despite a modest rebound from the lows of early 2024, the latest data suggest that structural challenges—excess supply, tight credit conditions, and cautious homebuyers—are still weighing heavily on the sector. With investment activity still in decline, the prospect of a durable recovery in housing and construction—long a cornerstone of China’s domestic demand—looks increasingly remote.

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U.S. policy decisions have sparked a sharp rise in financial market volatility in recent weeks, reflecting mounting investor unease about the global economic outlook. Consensus forecasts for growth in 2025 have been revised down significantly, while inflation expectations—particularly in the US—have moved higher, highlighting the stagflationary risks associated with the sweeping tariff measures introduced in early April (Charts 1 and 2). Although these actions have since been partially rolled back, the broader shift toward protectionism is already disrupting global trade flows and could soon feed through to consumer prices, compounding the challenge for central banks already struggling with sticky inflation. In parallel, measures of financial market stress have climbed to multi-month highs as investors reassess risks in an increasingly fragmented and uncertain environment (Chart 3). Business sentiment has also deteriorated notably, with this week’s Empire State Manufacturing Survey showing a collapse in forward-looking expectations (Chart 4). Adding to concerns, global shipping costs have begun to rise again, raising the risk that renewed supply chain frictions will put upward pressure on goods inflation across advanced economies (Chart 5). Finally, in China, hopes for stabilization in the property sector are fading. Despite some recent stabilisation in house prices, real estate investment continues to contract sharply, suggesting that structural headwinds remain firmly in place (Chart 6). Taken together, this week’s charts point to a fragile global economy contending with greater protectionism, rising inflation risks, weakening business confidence, and subdued demand—all of which are reinforcing the ongoing malaise in investment sentiment.

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Charts of the Week: From Blue to Red

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Total housing starts weakened 11.4% (+1.9% y/y) in March to 1.324 million units (SAAR) after rising 9.8% in February to 1.494 million units, revised from 1.501 million units, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected 1.418 million starts. Single-family starts declined 14.2% (-9.7% y/y) to 940,000 in March after rising 9.5% to 1.096 million in February. Multi-family starts weakened 3.5% (+48.8% y/y) to 384,000, following a 10.6% February drop. Total starts in March were 27.6% below their peak of 1.828 million units reached in April 2022.

Starts declined in two of the four major regions in March. They fell 30.9% (-8.8% y/y) in the West to 289,000, following an 8.0% February increase. In the South, starts declined 17.1% (-8.1% y/y) to 673,000 after rising 16.5% in February.  Starts in the Midwest increased 76.2% (44.2% y/y) to 222,000 after falling 30.8% in February. In the Northeast, starts improved 1.4% (45.8% y/y) to 140,000 following a 45.3% February increase.

Building permits increased 1.6% (-0.2% y/y) to 1.482 million units in March after three straight months of modest declines. Single-family permits fell 2.0% (-0.6% y/y) in March to 978,000 after edging 0.4% higher in February. Multi-family permits strengthened 9.3% (0.6% y/y). Permits rose 4.3% (-17.1% y/y) in the Northeast and were up 5.8% (-8.5% y/y) in the West. They increased 3.0% (4.5% y/y) in the South. Building permits in the Midwest declined 9.5% (+7.4% y/y).

The housing starts and building permits figures can be found in Haver’s **USECON** database. The expectations figure is contained in the **AS1REPNA** database.

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- Single-family starts plunge; multi-family weakens as well.
- Starts decline in West & South.
- Permits rise modestly after several months of decline.

U.S. Housing Starts Decline Sharply in March; Building Permits Edge Higher

Sandy Batten

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Business sentiment in the Philadelphia Federal Reserve district turned decidedly negative in April with the general business conditions index plummeting to -26.4, the lowest reading since April 2023, from 12.5 in March. The Action Economics Forecast Survey looked for a decline to +5.0 in April. The index is a diffusion index centered on zero. So, negative readings indicate that activity is falling. In April, nearly 39% of respondents reported a decrease in activity, up from 18.1% in March, while only 12.5% reported an increase versus 30.6% in March. Survey responses were collected from April 7 to April 14.

The headline index reflects the answer to a single question. Haver Analytics calculates a composite index using the methodology employed in the construction of the national ISM index. That index fell to 43.6 in April, well below the 50 level which separates expansion from contraction, from 50.5 in March. That is, activity fell in April for the first time in four months.

Looking at the components, the new orders index plunged to -34.2, its lowest reading since April 2020, from 8.7 in March. Nearly 45% of respondents reported a decline in orders while only 10.7% reported an increase. The shipments index fell to -9.1 in April, its first negative reading since last September, from 2.0 in March. Employment conditions deteriorated markedly. The employment index fell nearly 20 points to 0.2 from 19.7 in March. The average workweek index plummeted to -12.7, its first negative reading in four months, from 8.7 in March. The pace of delivery times fell for the first time in five months with the index declining to -2.6 in April from 4.1 in March.

The inflation environment remained relatively heated. The prices paid index edged up from 48.3 to 51.0, its highest reading since July 2022. Almost 54% of the firms reported increases in input prices, while 3% reported decreases; 36% reported no change. The current prices received index ticked up almost 1 point to 30.7 from 29.8. Almost 31% of the firms reported increases in the prices of their own goods, none reported decreases, and 64% reported no change.

After having fallen more than 22 points to 5.6 in March, the expectations index edged up to 6.9 in April. This index has fallen markedly over the past six months from 53.9 last November. Nearly 36% of the firms expect an increase in activity over the next six months, exceeding the 29% that expect a decrease; 25% expect no change. The future new orders index increased 4 points to 6.6, and the future shipments index decreased 6 points to 5.0, its lowest reading since June 2024. The future employment index fell 18 points to -0.6, its lowest reading since February 2016. The future prices paid index climbed to 63.1, and the future prices received index jumped 28 points to 67.7, its highest reading since June 2021. The index for future capital expenditures fell 11 points to 2.0. Nearly three-quarters of the firms expect no change in capital spending over the next six months.

The Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey (MBOS), conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, is a monthly survey of manufacturers in the Third Federal Reserve District. Participants indicate the direction of change in overall business activity and in the various measures of activity at their plants. The diffusion indexes in the MBOS represent the percentage of respondents indicating an increase minus the percentage indicating a decrease. The series from the survey dating back to May 1968 can be found in Haver's **SURVEYS** database. The expectations forecast figures are from the Action Economics Forecast Survey in **AS1REPNA**.

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- The headline index plunged to -26.4 in April from 12.5 in March.
- This is the lowest reading since April 2023.
- Both shipments and orders fell markedly.
- Prices paid rose further while employment indicators fell markedly.
- In contrast, after having fallen significantly since January, expectations six months ahead edged up in April.

U.S. Philly Fed Manufacturing Index Plunged in April

**Global growth**
Latest flash PMI readings reveal a widening gap in manufacturing performance across major economies. Europe remains mired in contraction, with both the UK and euro area registering PMI figures below the 50 threshold. The UK’s manufacturing sector is particularly under pressure, with the PMI dropping to a new low not seen in over a year—reflecting weak output and mounting challenges from both domestic uncertainty and external shocks, including the disruptive impact of recent US trade actions. While the euro area shows tentative signs of stabilization, with PMI readings inching higher, the recovery remains fragile. In sharp contrast, India’s manufacturing sector continues to outperform, with PMI figures climbing further and signalling resilient industrial momentum amidst global headwinds.

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**US capex intentions**
The latest reading from the US Philly Fed survey suggests a sharp drop in capex intentions among manufacturers in the Philadelphia region, likely reflecting growing uncertainty in the wake of the US administration’s surprise announcement of sweeping tariffs on April 2nd, 2025. This abrupt policy shift has rattled business confidence, echoing past episodes—such as during the 2008 financial crisis and early stages of the pandemic—when capex sentiment similarly plunged. The downturn underscores how policy-induced trade disruptions can swiftly chill investment appetite, particularly in manufacturing sectors exposed to global supply chains.

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**South Korean trade**
The fallout from President Trump’s “reciprocal” tariffs and the rapid escalation of the trade dispute with China is also now becoming evident in Asia’s trade data. South Korea’s trade figures for the first 20 days of April—often seen as a bellwether for global trade—fell sharply compared to the same period last year. The drop was led by a steep decline in exports to the United States, where tariffs on Chinese goods have surged to as high as 145%, effectively choking bilateral trade flows outside a narrow band of exemptions for strategic goods like electronics and semiconductors. Even these sectors are feeling the strain: South Korea’s semiconductor exports continued to decelerate in April, highlighting the broader collateral damage of deepening trade tensions.

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**Gold prices**
The latest escalation in US-China trade tensions is reverberating far beyond traditional trade channels. Market sentiment has deteriorated noticeably, weighed down by darkening global growth prospects and deepening uncertainty over the future of relations between the world’s two largest economies. The forced decoupling is also reshaping investor behaviour, particularly among Chinese investors, who are increasingly turning to stateless safe-haven assets like gold. This shift is evident in the surge in trading volumes on the Shanghai Gold Exchange and the steady climb in global gold prices—buoyed further by a weakening US dollar. The trend points to rising concern among Chinese investors about the geographic concentration of their wealth, as Washington’s increasingly hawkish posture prompts a reassessment of cross-border financial exposure.

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**The US dollar and market volatility** 
Recent sweeping US-led trade actions and a broader turn toward protectionism have sharply eroded the goodwill and soft power long associated with the US and its financial assets. As Washington becomes an increasingly prominent source of global instability, investor confidence in the US dollar as a safe-haven currency has weakened. This loss of faith is reflected across asset markets, with the dollar’s persistent and more entrenched decline against major currencies standing out as a clear signal of a broader reassessment of the US’s global economic role. Elevated market uncertainty reinforces this shift, as underscored by still-high—albeit slightly moderated—readings on the VIX volatility index.

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**Asia’s consumption**
Viewed in a broader context, the recent actions by the US may signal an effort to rebalance its economy—though whether this strategy is well-calibrated remains highly contested. As the issuer of the world’s dominant reserve currency, the US has long been ensnared in the so-called Triffin dilemma: global demand for dollar-denominated assets has sustained persistent trade deficits, gradually undermining the competitiveness of its domestic manufacturing and other tradable sectors. China, by contrast, grapples with the mirror image of this problem. Its growth model remains heavily anchored in manufacturing and external surpluses, and it is now under mounting pressure to pivot toward consumption-led growth—an imperative sharpened by the latest wave of US measures designed to curb Chinese export strength.

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Financial market volatility has remained elevated over the past several days as investors attempted to weigh a modest improvement in sentiment—driven by a potential, if partial, retreat by the US administration from its aggressive tariff stance—against a still-cloudy global outlook. Signals from flash PMI surveys on global growth remain mixed: Europe continues to stagnate, with the UK particularly weak, while India stands out with resilient and rising manufacturing activity (chart 1). In the US, most of the incoming data suggest that business confidence has faltered, with capital expenditure intentions plunging particularly sharply in the wake of the April 2nd tariff announcement (chart 2). The drag from trade tensions is, moreover, becoming more evident: South Korea’s exports have slumped, especially to the US, and even sectors granted exemptions—like semiconductors—are showing signs of strain (chart 3). These pressures are reverberating through financial markets as well, where Chinese investors are shifting into gold as a hedge, fuelling record trading volumes on the Shanghai Gold Exchange and lifting global gold prices (chart 4). Meanwhile, a broadly-based decline in the US dollar and persistently high readings on the VIX index arguably reflect a deeper reassessment of US assets as reliable safe havens amid mounting policy unpredictability (chart 5). Beneath these short-term ripples lie more entrenched structural challenges: the US is seeking to rebalance away from external deficits linked to its reserve currency role, while China is under growing pressure to pivot toward consumption-led growth—an imperative sharpened by American efforts to choke off its export strength (chart 6). In short, the latest softening in US trade rhetoric may offer brief relief, but the underlying economic, geopolitical, and structural crosswinds remain very much in play.

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Charts of the Week: Dollar Dips and Trade Trips

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Charts of the Week: Dollar Dips and Trade Trips

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